THE DRIFT SYSTEMS METHODPUBLIC EVIDENCE ONLY

FROM PUBLIC EVIDENCE.TO A RATIFIED MECHANISM.

The method does not make public information proprietary. It tests whether separate public facts form a consequential dependency, what would disprove that dependency, and where the surviving mechanism changes a decision.
SIGNAL→DOMAIN→DEPENDENCY→EVENT FOOTPRINT→CONSEQUENCE PATH→RELEVANCE LINK→INSTITUTION→SURFACE→MAPPING→DECISION BOUNDARY→FUNCTION→ROLE→COMMISSION

A CANDIDATE DOES NOT BECOME A RATIFIED MECHANISM BECAUSE IT SOUNDS PLAUSIBLE.

Each stage has a different job. A dependency mechanism candidate becomes a ratified dependency mechanism only if the mechanism and evidence boundary survive challenge. Decision relevance is tested separately when the ratified mechanism is applied to a surface, a function and a decision boundary.

01 / DISCOVER

Generate candidate dependency mechanisms from public evidence. Look for changing relationships between things still treated as separate.

Output: DEPENDENCY MECHANISM CANDIDATE / DMC
02 / CHALLENGE

Attack the candidate with contradiction, prior art, separability and falsifiability tests. Ask what evidence would kill it.

Output: SURVIVOR OR NULL
03 / RATIFY

Promote only a surviving mechanism. Freeze what is OBSERVED, MODELLED, INFERRED and UNPROVEN so later work cannot silently upgrade the evidence.

Output: RATIFIED DEPENDENCY MECHANISM / RDM
04 / MAP

Map the ratified dependency mechanism onto the public surface, its functions and decision boundaries without claiming knowledge of internal portfolios or models.

Output: SURFACE MAP
05 / SELECT

Choose the consequential question to develop. GUARD asks what the dependency could threaten. CREATE asks what recognising it could make newly valuable.

Output: BOUNDED DECISION QUESTION
OBSERVEDLarge-load / disconnection eventsDirectly evidenced initiating events or system behaviour.
MODELLEDWider system propagationWider propagation that is analytically constructed, not claimed as observed.
INFERREDCross-exposure correlationCross-exposure or decision relevance supported by the mechanism and public footprint.
UNPROVENInsured consequencePortfolio-scale insured consequence or institution-specific internal treatment.

NULL IS A VALID RESULT.

The method is designed to permit NULL at both stages. A mechanism does not ratify if it cannot be separated from prior art or survive contradiction. A ratified mechanism does not pass a surface test unless consequential decision relevance can be supported without unsupported assumptions.

MECHANISM

Is the dependency mechanism defined precisely enough to test?

SEPARABILITY

Is this more than a relabelled known risk or existing category?

CONTRADICTION

What public evidence weakens or breaks the proposed connection?

PRIOR ART

Has the same dependency already been publicly recognised in materially equivalent form?

SURFACE CONSEQUENTIALITY

Could the ratified mechanism change a real institutional decision on this surface?

FALSIFIABILITY

What evidence would cause the dependency or downstream claim to fail?

THE MARKET REVEALS THE DECISION ECOLOGY.
THE METHOD INTERPRETS IT.

Once a mechanism is ratified and mapped to a surface, the institutional mapping follows a fixed order: the bounded Decision Boundary the institution owns, the Function associated with it, then the Role class, confirmed from public role evidence, and finally the human pathway: who discovers the condition, who validates it, who can sponsor action. Titles do not route first. A desk is used only where an institution genuinely operates through desks.

01 / DECISION BOUNDARY

The bounded institutional decision that may be altered, enabled, constrained or challenged. Owned by the institution; several dependencies can converge on one boundary. Does the accumulation boundary stop at the data centre?

02 / FUNCTION

The institutional capability associated with that boundary: accumulation, portfolio, underwriting, technical risk, enterprise risk, actuarial, claims, or a cross-class owner.

03 / ROLE

The decision-owning role class, established from the institution's public role evidence. A role is the output of translation, not the input.

04 / DISCOVERER, VALIDATOR, SPONSOR

Who is likely to encounter the condition, who can determine whether it is real and material, and who has the mandate to act. One person may hold more than one position; the pathway is never forced where public evidence does not support it.

The method stays outside-in. Public evidence can establish the mechanism, its evidence state and the institution's public footprint. It cannot establish how an institution treats a dependency internally. That comparison belongs to the institution.