01 / CONSEQUENCE REPORT
GUARD FROM THIS DEPENDENCY.
Develops the institution-specific consequence position: what the dependency puts under pressure, which exposures or decisions it connects, and what the institution should guard.
€25KFIXED
MONACO 2026 · RDM-03METHOD
FROM PUBLIC EVIDENCE.TO A RATIFIED MECHANISM.
The method does not make public information proprietary. It tests whether separate public facts form a consequential dependency, what would disprove that dependency, and where the surviving mechanism changes a decision.DISCOVER. CHALLENGE. RATIFY.
MAP. SELECT.
Each stage has a different job. A candidate does not become RDM-03 because it sounds plausible. It becomes an RDM only if the mechanism and evidence boundary survive challenge. Decision relevance is tested separately when the ratified mechanism is applied to a surface.
01 / DISCOVER
Generate candidate dependency mechanisms from public evidence. Look for changing relationships between things still treated as separate.
02 / CHALLENGE
Attack the candidate with contradiction, prior art, separability and falsifiability tests. Ask what evidence would kill it.
03 / RATIFY
Promote only a surviving mechanism. Freeze what is OBSERVED, MODELLED, INFERRED and UNPROVEN so later work cannot silently upgrade the evidence.
04 / MAP
Map the ratified dependency mechanism onto the public surface, its functions and decision boundaries without claiming knowledge of internal portfolios or models.
05 / SELECT
Choose the consequential question to develop. GUARD asks what the dependency could threaten. CREATE asks what recognising it could make newly valuable.
THE STATES DO NOT BLUR.
THEY CONSTRAIN THE CLAIM.
OBSERVEDLarge-load / disconnection eventsDirectly evidenced initiating events or system behaviour.
MODELLEDWider system propagationWider propagation that is analytically constructed, not claimed as observed.
INFERREDCross-exposure correlationCross-exposure or decision relevance supported by the mechanism and public footprint.
UNPROVENInsured consequencePortfolio-scale insured consequence or institution-specific internal treatment.
A DEPENDENCY MUST BE KILLABLE.
OTHERWISE IT IS ONLY A STORY.
The method is designed to permit NULL at both stages. A mechanism does not ratify if it cannot be separated from prior art or survive contradiction. A ratified mechanism does not pass a surface test unless consequential decision relevance can be supported without unsupported assumptions.
MECHANISM
Is the dependency mechanism defined precisely enough to test?
SEPARABILITY
Is this more than a relabelled known risk or existing category?
CONTRADICTION
What public evidence weakens or breaks the proposed connection?
PRIOR ART
Has the same dependency already been publicly recognised in materially equivalent form?
SURFACE CONSEQUENTIALITY
Could the ratified mechanism change a real institutional decision on this surface?
FALSIFIABILITY
What evidence would cause the dependency or downstream claim to fail?
CONSEQUENCE and OPPORTUNITY remain separate reports. GUARD and CREATE are the simple decision layer. Commission either report on its own, or both against the same RDM-03 evidence base.
02 / OPPORTUNITY REPORT
CREATE WITH THIS DEPENDENCY.
Develops the institution-specific opportunity position: what recognising the dependency could help create across decisions, products, services, structures, capabilities or market position.
€25KFIXED
03 / BOTH
GUARD + CREATE WITH THIS DEPENDENCY
Two complete positions from one dependency and shared evidence base: what the institution should guard, and what it could create.
€40KFIXED / SAVE €10K
BOTH · €40K →NO ACCESS TO YOUR INTERNAL SYSTEMS.
NO CLAIM TO KNOW YOUR PORTFOLIO.
The method stays outside-in. Public evidence can establish the mechanism, its evidence state and the institution's public footprint. It cannot establish how a buyer treats RDM-03 internally. That comparison belongs to the buyer.